Wes Love, president of Taurus Craco, is seeking certainty amidst the turbulent trade landscape affecting his Toronto-area business, which imports machinery for distribution across North America, predominantly to the United States. The unpredictability stemming from President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariffs on Canadian products has left him and numerous other independent business owners in a state of uncertainty regarding their future operations.

In an interview with the BBC in June, Mr. Love expressed the challenges this indecision poses, stating, “What has been creating indecision in the market is people don’t know which way this is going to go. And in small businesses, indecision is killer.”

Taurus Craco faced significant financial repercussions earlier this year, incurring nearly C$35,000 (approximately $25,500 or £18,700) in additional costs when a shipment to the U.S. crossed the border just moments after a tariff deadline. Mr. Love criticized this as a punitive measure, likening the situation to dealing with organized crime. “From a small business perspective, that’s more than the cost that we spend on hydro and gas for the entire year,” he emphasized.

Despite President Trump’s decision to temporarily halt the tariff shortly after its imposition, Taurus Craco was still required to pay the fee, as refusal would have barred the company from selling products in the U.S. “It’s like dealing with the mob,” Mr. Love remarked.

The ongoing tariff conflict between Canada and the U.S., particularly affecting the metal and automotive sectors, has spurred Prime Minister Mark Carney to label these tariffs as “unjust.” Throughout his recent campaign for the April election, Carney indicated that the “old relationship” with the U.S. is “over.” Following his election victory, he took a conciliatory approach during his visit to Washington D.C., initiating discussions aimed at forging a new trade and security agreement.

With a July 16 deadline set for finalizing this deal, President Trump expressed optimism at a recent G7 summit about reaching a resolution. However, he announced on Friday that he was suspending trade negotiations due to Canada’s digital services tax, stating via social media, “We are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately.”

In response to these developments, Prime Minister Carney warned of potential retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. should negotiations fail. Mr. Love remains hopeful for a resolution, advocating for clear and stable rules for operation. “Give us a set of rules and leave them alone and let us operate within those rules,” he asserted. “It’s like sport, right? Everybody goes onto the field and you play to a set of rules, but you don’t change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Gaphel Kongtsa, international policy director at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said businesses are hopeful an agreement will bring stability. 

Thus far, they have had to navigate a very fluid landscape, he said, “where seemingly things get increased or decreased or added on without very much clear indication as to why”.

Canada is hugely reliant on trade with the US, with 75% of its exports heading south, according to Statistics Canada.

Its economy has slowed significantly in the first quarter of 2025 as a result of trade war and the ensuing uncertainty – growing only 0.8% between 1 January and 31 March, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).

It shrank 0.1% over a month in April. 

A timeline of the tariffs shows what a whirlwind few months it has been.

On 1 February, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on most Canadian imports, then suspended them for a month days later. They were re-imposed when that deadline expired, only to be again delayed. 

Not long after, he granted an exemption on all goods that were compliant with the current North American free trade deal, known as the USMCA. 

Then in March, the US imposed a global 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium as well as on imported vehicles. 

This month, Trump raised the metals tariff to 50%.

The manufacturing sector has captured significant attention regarding tariffs, but the service sector is also grappling with uncertainty, albeit less directly. Sam Gupta, founder and CEO of ElevatIQ, a technology and management consultancy based in Buffalo, New York, and Toronto, expressed concern about the lack of focus on the service industry during these challenging times. He referred to it as the “unloved stepchild” of the economy.

Gupta observed, “The spotlight is on manufacturing companies that are significantly affected by the supply chain.” However, the service sector—which includes industries ranging from finance to tourism—plays a crucial role in Canada’s economy, representing a large portion of the workforce.

While service exporters have not faced the same severe impacts as manufacturers, their market confidence has reached its lowest point in years, as indicated by data from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Although the government has put measures in place to support companies adversely affected by tariffs, often funded by counter-tariffs, the service sector has not benefited from any financial assistance.

“We are not even in the conversation,” Gupta remarked. “We don’t exist.” He noted that while his company is not currently facing financial difficulties, inquiries for ElevatIQ’s services have declined by 50%.

In a recent discussion, industry expert Mr. Gupta expressed concerns about the current business landscape, highlighting a lack of focus on long-term investments among companies. “Not many businesses are in the mindset for these kinds of commitments right now,” he noted.

He elaborated on the uncertainty many face, saying, “The biggest fear is the unknown duration of this situation. If it’s six months, a year, or even 18 months, we can still manage. But if this continues for two or three years, it’s going to be incredibly challenging.”

Reflecting on his two-decade career, Mr. Gupta emphasized that this is the most difficult period he has encountered, with a convergence of challenges impacting the sector. He recalled the ease of securing lucrative positions early in his career. “Back then, even as graduates, we were offered substantial salaries, and we were so confident that we often ignored calls from recruiters,” he remarked.

Now, he observes a significant shift. “With the influence of AI, tariffs, and the broader economy, everyone I know is facing difficulties,” he said.

Recent statistics from Statistics Canada reveal that 56% of businesses exporting to the U.S. have implemented strategies to counteract the effects of tariffs. Over 30% have postponed major investments, while 25% are pursuing alternative markets outside the U.S. The Bank of Canada reported a more than 15% decline in exports to the U.S. in April, with steel and aluminum exports plummeting by 25% and 11% respectively, and vehicle exports dropping by 25%.

Nonetheless, Mr. Love maintains an optimistic outlook. He believes businesses can overcome these hurdles if the U.S. refrains from frequent changes to its trade policies. “We’re entrepreneurs, driven and determined,” he stated. “We are doing everything we can to keep pushing forward. I believe we will succeed; we just need clarity on the rules of the game.”